This is an editorial guide provided for information only. The figures below come from a genuine computer simulation built on each game’s exact published odds and prize structure — real draws will vary around these averages. fortunegames.com is not affiliated with the National Lottery or Allwyn; always check the official site for current rules and prizes.
100 Million HotPicks Tickets, Simulated
Which HotPicks game actually pays back the most? We simulated 20 million £1 lines of each Pick — 100 million in all, every line entered into both rounds under the June 2026 rules — and the answer is emphatic: Pick 1 returned 61% of stakes; Pick 5 returned just 26%.
The results, game by game
| Game | Prize | Winners (of 20m lines) | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick 1 | £3 | 4,067,428 | 61.0% |
| Pick 2 | £30 | 350,767 | 52.6% |
| Pick 3 | £400 | 24,666 | 49.3% |
| Pick 4 | £6,500 | 1,294 | 42.1% |
| Pick 5 | £175,000 | 30 | 26.2% |
Across all 100 million tickets, £46.3 million of the £100 million spent came back in prizes — but the spread between the games is the real story.
Why Pick 1 keeps the most of your money
The pattern is a ladder: every step up in prize size costs you a slice of average return. Pick 1’s £3 wins landed more than four million times; Pick 5’s £175,000 landed thirty times. The game charges you — in expected return — for the size of the dream you’re buying, and the biggest dream costs the most per pound.
The two-round twist
Since 10 June 2026, every £1 line plays both rounds of the draw, with the halved fixed prizes to match. All your numbers must appear in the same round to win, but the same line can win in both — our Pick 1 tickets did exactly that thousands of times, turning £3 into £6 on a single line.
So which should you play?
There’s no wrong answer, only an honest trade: Pick 1 for the most frequent, smallest wins; Pick 5 for a real shot — 1 in 834,398 per round — at a £175,000 result no other £1 lottery game offers. The simulation simply prices the choice: the bigger the ceiling, the less comes back on average.
Frequently asked questions
Which HotPicks game has the best return?
Pick 1 — it returned 61% of stakes in our simulation, the highest of the five games.
Is Pick 5 a bad deal then?
It returns the least on average, but it’s the only £1 game with a £175,000 top prize — you’re paying for the ceiling.
Can one HotPicks line win twice?
Yes — if your numbers appear in both rounds of the draw, you win the fixed prize twice from one £1 line.
Are these real results?
Yes — a genuine simulation of 100 million lines using the exact post-June-2026 odds and prizes. Real draws vary around these averages.
Related guides: the HotPicks prize breakdown, how to play Lotto HotPicks and 100 million Lotto tickets, simulated.