This is an editorial guide provided for information only. The figures below come from a genuine computer simulation built on each game’s exact published odds and prize structure — real draws will vary around these averages. fortunegames.com is not affiliated with the National Lottery or Allwyn; always check the official site for current rules and prizes.
New Lotto vs Old Lotto: 100 Million Tickets Each
Did the June 2026 changes actually give players a better deal? We simulated 100 million £2 lines under the old rules and 100 million under the new two-round format and compared them directly. Verdict: the new game paid back more — 38.2% of stakes against 35.6% — and produced nearly twice as many winners.
The head-to-head
| Old Lotto | New Lotto | |
|---|---|---|
| Winning lines | 1 in 9.23 | 1 in 4.88 |
| Fixed-prize return | 35.6% (£71.3m) | 38.2% (£76.4m) |
| £1m Match 5 + Bonus wins | 13 | 30 |
| Match 3 winners | 1,039,596 × £30 | 2,085,026 × £10 |
| Match 2 winners | 9,751,830 × Lucky Dip | 19,492,241 × £1 |
For the old game, we valued the Match 2 free Lucky Dip at its £2 ticket price — the one assumption in the comparison, stated openly.
Where the extra value went
The new format wins on average return and on frequency — two chances per line more than doubled the winner count and the £1 million moments. The price was paid in the middle: Match 3 fell from £30 to £10 and Match 5 from £1,750 to £1,000, so the mid-sized cheque got smaller even as it arrived twice as often.
Which game would you rather have played?
If you value winning something regularly and doubled shots at £1 million, the new game is simply better. If what you loved was the occasional £30 for three numbers, the old game felt richer even though it returned less overall. Both things are true at once — which is why the change divided opinion despite being, on the maths, a genuine improvement.
One honest caveat
These figures cover the fixed tiers; jackpot money sits on top of both games and depends on rollovers and sharing, which no fair simulation can pin to a single number. The fixed tiers are where the formats truly differ — and there, the new game measurably comes out ahead.
Frequently asked questions
Does the new Lotto pay back more than the old one?
Yes — 38.2% of stakes against 35.6% in our matched 100-million-ticket runs, plus jackpot money on top of both.
Do more people win under the new format?
Nearly twice as many — 1 line in 4.88 won something, against 1 in 9.23 under the old rules.
What got worse in the new format?
The middle prizes — Match 3 dropped from £30 to £10 and Match 5 from £1,750 to £1,000, though both now hit twice as often.
How was the old Match 2 Lucky Dip counted?
At its £2 ticket value — the comparison’s only assumption, and it flatters the old game if anything.
Related guides: the 2026 Lotto changes, the two-round format explained and 100 million Lotto tickets, simulated.