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How Often Do Dealers Bust In Blackjack?

How Often Do Dealers Bust In Blackjack?

Playing blackjack, whether you are a novice or a seasoned player, often leads to the question: "How often do dealers bust in blackjack?" Understanding the dealer's bust rate can be a crucial part of your blackjack strategy, helping you make informed decisions during the game. In this article, we will discuss the dealer's bust rate, the impact of their upcard, and whether everyone at the table wins when the dealer busts.

## Dealer's Bust Rate

One of the key factors to consider when playing blackjack is the dealer's bust rate. The bust rate is the percentage of time the dealer's hand will go over the total of 21, resulting in a bust. The dealer's bust rate varies depending on their upcard, which is the card that is face-up and visible to all players.

Dealer Bust Percentages

The dealer's bust percentage for each upcard is as follows:

  • 2: 35%
  • 3: 37%
  • 4: 40%
  • 5: 42%
  • 6: 42%
  • 7: 26%
  • 8: 24%
  • 9: 23%
  • 10: 23%
  • Ace: 17%

From the percentages above, it is clear that the dealer is most likely to bust when showing a 5 or 6, followed closely by a 4. On the other hand, the dealer is least likely to bust when they have an Ace, 10, or 9 as their upcard.

Impact of the Dealer's Upcard

The dealer's upcard plays a significant role in deciding whether to hit, stand, or double down. Knowing the bust percentage for each upcard can help you make better decisions during the game. However, it is essential to follow basic blackjack strategy to maximize your chances of winning.

Basic Blackjack Strategy

Basic blackjack strategy is based on the mathematics of the game, and it has been tested and refined through computer simulations. By following basic strategy, you can reduce the house edge to a minimum, usually around one-half of a percent. Basic strategy involves making decisions to hit, stand, or double down based on your two cards and the dealer's upcard.

When to Double Down

One of the key aspects of basic blackjack strategy is knowing when to double down. Generally, you should double down more often when the dealer is showing a 4, 5, or 6 since their bust percentage is higher in these scenarios. However, it is crucial to follow basic strategy and avoid doubling down in situations not recommended by the strategy.

Does Everyone Win When The Dealer Busts?

If the dealer busts, all remaining hands in play that have not gone over 21 will win. However, if any players have already busted, they will lose regardless of the dealer's bust. It is essential to check both the casino and game rules, as this could change depending on the variation of blackjack being played.

Blackjack Versions and Rule Variations

Blackjack is a classic table game that comes in many different versions, including Blackjack Pro, Single Deck Blackjack, Live Blackjack, Platinum Blackjack, Atlantic City Blackjack, Vinnie Jones Blackjack, Perfect Pairs, and many more. Each version of blackjack may have slightly different rules, impacting the dealer's odds of busting. As a player, understanding these rule variations and how they affect the game can help improve your strategy and decision-making.

House Edge and Dealer's Odds

Blackjack is a game that involves chance, skill, and strategy. Understanding the basic rules and strategy can help players make better decisions, potentially lowering the house edge. Knowing the dealer's odds of busting can help players decide whether to hit, stand, or double down, depending on the version being played.

Dealer's Odds Based on Upcard

The dealer's odds of busting depend on their upcard, as mentioned earlier. In some versions of blackjack, the dealer has the following odds of potentially busting based on their upcard:

  • Ace: 11.65%
  • 10, J, Q, & K: 21.43%
  • 9: 23.34%
  • 8: 23.86%
  • 7: 25.99%
  • 6: 42.08%
  • 5: 42.89%
  • 4: 40.28%
  • 3: 37.56%
  • 2: 35.30%

The dealer's worst face-up cards are 4, 5, and 6, as these have a higher chance of potentially busting. However, this can depend on the game rules and blackjack version being played. These odds may help players make strategic decisions during the game, potentially lowering the house edge.

Additional Factors to Consider

In addition to the dealer's bust rate and upcard, other factors can influence your decision-making during a blackjack game. These factors include the number of decks in play, the casino's specific rules, and the strategies employed by other players at the table. By considering all of these factors, you can make more informed decisions and improve your overall blackjack strategy.

Importance of Practice

To become proficient in blackjack and improve your chances of winning, it is crucial to practice your skills and strategies. There are various blackjack apps and online platforms available that can help you practice and refine your skills. By practicing and learning from your mistakes, you can increase your chances of success at the blackjack table.


Understanding the dealer's bust rate and the impact of their upcard on the game is essential for any blackjack player. By considering these factors, along with basic blackjack strategy, you can make more informed decisions and potentially increase your chances of winning. Remember to practice your skills, learn from your mistakes, and enjoy the exciting game of blackjack!